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There is uncertainty in every risk assessment. The problem formulation
phase is when you learn your limits. Possible areas of uncertainty
include:
- Lack of knowledge about how the ecosystem functions.
- Failure to identify and interrelate temporal and spatial parameters.
- Omission of stressors.
- Overlooking secondary effects.
Part of the agreement on scope and complexity is based on the maximum
uncertainty that can be tolerated for the decision the risk assessment
supports.
To address uncertainty in problem formulation:
- Define explicit assessment endpoints; include both an entity
and its measurable attributes.
- Carefully define boundaries for assessment.
- Be open and explicit about strengths and limitations of pathways
and relationships depicted in the conceptual model.
- Identify and describe the rationale for key assumptions made
because of lack of knowledge, model simplification, approximation,
or extrapolation.
- Describe data limitations.
- Be explicit about the strengths and limitations of pathways
and relationships in the conceptual model.
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Handling the Perils of Uncertainty
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Relevant
guidelines section(s): 3.4.3, Text Box 3-14
~ End of Lesson 4 ~
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