Addressing Uncertainty

An essential element of any risk assessment report is a clear discussion of uncertainty. The report should review and summarize major areas of uncertainty (as well as their magnitude and direction) and the approaches used to address them. In particular, the report should:

• Discuss the degree of scientific consensus in key areas of uncertainty.
• Identify major data gaps and, where appropriate, state whether more data would enhance the overall confidence in the assessment results.
• Discuss science policy judgments or default assumptions used to bridge data gaps, and the basis for those assumptions.
• Discuss how elements of quantitative uncertainty analysis are embedded in the risk estimate.

Relevant guidelines section(s): 5.3