Social Science Research to Improve National Weather Service Messaging for Tsunamis

Although tsunamis are relatively rare events, they represent a significant threat to people along the shoreline when they occur. To alert people to tsunami threats, the National Weather Service uses a series of defined messages: Tsunami Information Statements, Tsunami Watches, Tsunami Advisories, and Tsunami Warnings. Anecdotal evidence indicates that the public and some in the emergency management community have trouble correctly interpreting these messages and how to properly take protective actions in response to them. NWS also had specific concerns about how it was using the information statements and advisory messages and whether its current usage of those statements was a source of confusion.

To assist NWS in assessing ways to improve tsunami messaging, ERG developed a social science-based research plan that involved interviews with local emergency managers, a public survey, and focus groups with emergency managers. The interviews provided the basis for developing the public survey. Working with NWS, we then used the survey to test alternative messages, and we statistically analyzed the survey data to assess how well the alternatives worked in prompting the public to take the correct protective actions. Based on this analysis, NWS and ERG formulated a set of proposed changes and discussed those changes with local emergency managers in higher-risk tsunami areas to receive informed feedback on the proposed changes. Based on the focus group feedback and survey and interview data, ERG then developed a final report that provided clear, actionable recommendations for NWS moving forward.